Politics
Until the election, I think I'll start putting my State of the Race predictions here. This past week, we received the umpteenth October Surprise of this election when FBI Director James Comey informed lawmakers that he would be reopening his investigation into Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's emails. I actually don't expect that bombshell to affect the election too much, since people have already made up their minds as to whether they care about the FBI's investigation.
I do expect the race to tighten up in the coming weeks because I think many Republican voters will begin to fall into the binary thinking the two-party system engenders as the election approaches ("If I don't vote for Trump, I'm not doing my part to stop Hillary!"). This is nonsense, because the only reason that there is not a nationally viable third-party alternative to Trump (or Clinton) is because people believe that a third-party is not a viable alternative. If enough people did, there would be one.
With that mini-rant out of the way, here is my #StateOfTheRace prediction after this week.
You'll notice that I have certain states swinging in directions that the pundits do not. For instance, I still believe that Trump will win Florida, because of the retiree vote. I do not think Pennsylvania is as vulnerable to Trump as some do, because there hasn't been a poll showing him ahead there since mid-July. (While I think the polls are actually biased toward Clinton by a few points this year for a variety of reasons, I don't think that a continuous trend like the one in PA is an accident.) I have Arizona for Clinton because of the amount of attention she's paying to it late in the race, and the polls there seem to show a tightening race. I think things could get weird in Maine and Nebraska because this is a weird year. Finally, I believe the Evan McMullin hype and expect him to steal Utah in a very close race.
Honestly, though, if you just give Clinton the states she's expected to win handily, the election appears to be over:
To win this election, Trump needs to steal one of those blue states from Clinton and lock up the remaining grey states. It's not impossible, but it's highly improbable, I think.
Movies
I did not see a movie this week, unless you count my third viewing of Skyfall on the plane ride home. I forgot how good it was.
Sports
My main sports obsession is college football. While it is on, I really ignore every other sport. (Yes, baseball, that includes you, but I still hope the Cubs lose for pretty much these reasons.) So until the playoff, I'm going to post my Playoff Outlook here. It's based on the following three ironclad, black-and-white, never-wrong rules that I just made up:
- The four Playoff teams will consist of, in order: undefeated Power-5 Conference champions; one-loss Power-5 Conference champions (UNLESS the one-loss is to another undefeated team, which will take their spot in the Playoff if not already present); undefeated Group of 5/Independent teams; and one-loss Power-5 Conference teams.
- A Power-5 Conference team is eliminated from Playoff contention after two losses, and a Group of 5/Independent team is eliminated after one.
- If there are five undefeated Power-5 Conference champions, the team with the weakest perceived conference will be eliminated from Playoff contention.
Given those rules, the only teams that still have a chance to make the playoff after Week 9 are Clemson, Louisville, Baylor, West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Western Michigan, Washington, Florida, Alabama, and Texas A&M.
Out of those, I would pick Alabama, Michigan, Clemson, and Washington (in that order). If they win out, I think that's your Playoff.
I was glad to go home for a few days at the end of this week to see my family while on Fall Break, but it's back to the grind for the next few weeks leading into law school exams. I'll try to post here, but it will be brief.
No comments:
Post a Comment