Why Cruz Isn't Winning Where He Should

Tonight after Arizona was called for Trump in the GOP primary, I heard several of CNN's election night pundits talk for the umpteenth time about how troubling it is that Cruz can't win southern or western states.  This begs the question: why is Trump beating Cruz where Cruz "should win?"  I thought I'd give my own perspective.

Recall that based on my Grand Unified Theory (it really needs a better name), Trump and Cruz are both primarily pulling from the Angry Right, a portion of the GOP electorate that is sizable and loud this election cycle.  Most Angry Right voters are dissatisfied with the federal government, if not mad at it, and feel that they have been betrayed by the politicians in Washington - Republican or Democrat - one too many times.  The Angry Right want pure ideological conservative policies, but the representatives they elect seem to moderate, dilly-dally, or vote for things they don't agree with when they arrive in DC.  Trump's message of frank, bull-like fury, they feel, will topple Washington politics-as-usual by sheer force of personality, clearing out what they feel is a disingenuous and threatening system.

Thing is, Cruz is running with a similar message, aimed at the Angry Right.  My thought is that Trump is beating Cruz with Angry Right voters in the South and West, where I think they're primarily concentrated.

This might be occurring because the Angry Right thinks Trump will smash the system, while Cruz has a (likely undeserved) reputation for duplicity.  His campaign this primary season has had several rather public instances where they've bent the truth.  (Iowa mailers, Carson's dropping out, Rubio and the Bible, etc.)  While these instances have been oddly non-existent since Cruz fired Rick Tyler about a month ago, the Angry Right is wary of duplicity, with a deep fear of being duped again.  Trump's label of "lying Ted" may well have stuck, and the Angry Right may be embracing Trump as the more genuine-seeming of the two candidates.

Alternatively, the Angry Right may consider Cruz to be a politician who's fought the system in Washington, but is still a part of it nonetheless.  It's likely not helping when they see the anti-Trump establishment forces rallying around Cruz as their last hope, and may well drive more of the Angry Right to Trump's side.

A Post-Ides Grand Unified Theory Update

Last week, I posted my Grand Unified Theory of the 2016 GOP presidential race.  It was an attempt to make sense of this uniquely fractured race.  Now that the Ides of March Primaries are all but over, I'm going to update my voting blocks again to take into effect Marco Rubio's decision to drop out and John Kasich's win in Ohio.  I also think it's time to make some general predictions based on this theory.

Below, I'll list the new voting blocks as I see them.  Remember, these are the voter groups that I believe make up the base of each candidate's support.  For reference on these groups, please refer to my post below.

Trump: Blue Dog Dems + Angry Right
Cruz: Angry Right + Social Conservatives
Kasich: Establishment + Moderates

Now, for a brief update to the theory.  You may have noticed that the Far Right has become the Angry Right.  I changed this moniker mostly because I thought it was more appropriate.  Voters in this block are casting their ballots based on anger and frustration with a political party and system that they feel has stymied their goals and ignored them for too long.  They're not the only angry ones this electoral cycle; Blue Dog Democrats are angry too, but not at government.  Blue Dog Dems, who I think frequently emerge from the working class, may be voting for Trump because they believe that immigration is a threat to their livelihood.

And now, a few predictions, centered around two questions: How will Rubio's exit, and Kasich's win in Ohio, affect the race?

Rubio's votes, according to my theory, will split between Cruz and Kasich.  The Establishment portion of Rubio supporters will latch onto Kasich for dear life, and Social Conservatives will overwhelmingly filter Cruz's direction.  However, past bad blood between the Rubio and Cruz camps during the campaign will not help things.  Rubio's Social Cons may be grudging supporters at first, giving Cruz their votes as the last best hope to stop Trump.  Alternatively, some Social Conservatives distrustful of Cruz after his (perceived or actual) deceits may well support Kasich if he begins to moderate his tone.

This brings me to my big prediction: John Kasich Is Going To Ruin Everything.

Kasich is a far more palatable candidate to the Establishment and Moderate voters, many of whom LOATHE Cruz.  Don't get me wrong, I think Cruz is now the grassroots candidate.  #NeverTrump is a grassroots movement (for the most part), and I think Cruz will win that portion of the electorate handily.  But for Rubio voters who consider Cruz a dishonest or childish candidate, Kasich may seem the honest adult.  They may well flip to him instead of Cruz, weakening Cruz's bid to take down Trump, especially in Northern states.

A split may well develop, then, in the #NeverTrump movement between Establishment and Moderate voters who want an electable governor as the GOP nominee and the Social Conservative/Angry Right grassroots who like Cruz's conservative bona fides and want change in the Republican Party.  The problem?  That split would likely hand Trump the nomination on a silver platter.

A Grand Unified Theory of the 2016 Republican Presidential Race

I've refrained from writing about the 2016 Republican election here at all, mostly because I've been too busy.  (If you're wondering, though, I'm firmly in the #NeverTrump camp.)  However, I came up with something recently that I think helps to explain the frenetic nature of the current Republican race.  I'll briefly describe that here. 

The reason I think that the party feels like it's a very tense breaking point, in my opinion, is because of overlapping voter groups within the GOP.  

The Republican electorate is made up of five disparate kinds of voters right now.  I'll lay them out briefly below, from most conservative to least.

Group number one I like to call the Far Right.  This voting block includes die-hard Tea Partiers, many conservative-minded libertarians, and those for whom the Second Amendment and illegal immigration are primary issues.  Voters in this group tend to reflexively dislike or blame Obama, "the liberals," or the government in general for society's problems.  They are often working-class or middle-class economically, with a deep-seated distrust of authority.  Due to their belief in American exceptionalism, they occasionally hold isolationist viewpoints on foreign policy.  This election, they're rather angry and fed up with the lack of conservative solutions being put in action by mainstream Republican lawmakers.

Next come Social Conservatives.  They vote Republican due to a strong belief in Judeo-Christian moral values.  They view Republicans as aligned with this moral tradition and working to preserve it in society.  Their primary issues of concern are social trends in the country that they see as corrupting the culture at the root level of the family: governmental endorsement of same-sex marriage, abortion on demand, and a disregard for religious liberty.  Social Conservatives vote for Republicans who they hope will curtail or reverse these trends.  Along with the Far Right, these voters make up the grassroots of the Republican party.

After Social Conservatives come the Establishment GOP voters.  Frequently accused of being RINOs ("Republican in name only") by the Far Right, these voters cast their ballots to support GOP candidates because they believe that general Republican principles can govern the country better overall than liberal ones.  Establishment voters may include "compassionate conservatives" like George W. Bush or John McCain, Republicans who think that government programs can be used selectively to cure some social ills.  This is the hardest voting group to positively define.

Fourth in line are Moderates.  These individuals vote Republican for a variety of disparate reasons, but often because they happen to like the Republican candidate today better than the Democratic one. They hang out in the middle of the political spectrum and don't pick any cohesive side.  They may have sympathy with both liberal and conservative points of view.  The Far Right and Social Conservatives alike heap disdain on these voters, terming them "squishy" and "unprincipled" - the real RINOs.

Finally, the Blue Dog Democrats.  These guys are Democrats disillusioned with their own party for one reason or another.  Many still hold mostly liberal values, and may be registered Democrats.  However, whether it's dislike of the Democratic candidates or dissatisfaction with how Democrats are addressing a particular issue, or even attraction to a Republican candidate who they feel will "shake up" the political landscape, they vote Republican in primaries.  In a general election for President, though, their allegiance to the Democratic party may prevail.

My big theory is that each of the remaining Republican presidential candidates is primarily pulling from two of these five voting groups, as detailed below:

Trump = Blue Dog Democrats + Far Right

Cruz = Far Right + Social Conservatives

Rubio = Social Conservatives + Establishment

Kasich = Establishment + Moderates

I think viewing the electoral field in this way provides a lot of clarity into where the conflicts are in the current Republican race for president.  What do you think?  Let me know in the comments!