A Post-Ides Grand Unified Theory Update

Last week, I posted my Grand Unified Theory of the 2016 GOP presidential race.  It was an attempt to make sense of this uniquely fractured race.  Now that the Ides of March Primaries are all but over, I'm going to update my voting blocks again to take into effect Marco Rubio's decision to drop out and John Kasich's win in Ohio.  I also think it's time to make some general predictions based on this theory.

Below, I'll list the new voting blocks as I see them.  Remember, these are the voter groups that I believe make up the base of each candidate's support.  For reference on these groups, please refer to my post below.

Trump: Blue Dog Dems + Angry Right
Cruz: Angry Right + Social Conservatives
Kasich: Establishment + Moderates

Now, for a brief update to the theory.  You may have noticed that the Far Right has become the Angry Right.  I changed this moniker mostly because I thought it was more appropriate.  Voters in this block are casting their ballots based on anger and frustration with a political party and system that they feel has stymied their goals and ignored them for too long.  They're not the only angry ones this electoral cycle; Blue Dog Democrats are angry too, but not at government.  Blue Dog Dems, who I think frequently emerge from the working class, may be voting for Trump because they believe that immigration is a threat to their livelihood.

And now, a few predictions, centered around two questions: How will Rubio's exit, and Kasich's win in Ohio, affect the race?

Rubio's votes, according to my theory, will split between Cruz and Kasich.  The Establishment portion of Rubio supporters will latch onto Kasich for dear life, and Social Conservatives will overwhelmingly filter Cruz's direction.  However, past bad blood between the Rubio and Cruz camps during the campaign will not help things.  Rubio's Social Cons may be grudging supporters at first, giving Cruz their votes as the last best hope to stop Trump.  Alternatively, some Social Conservatives distrustful of Cruz after his (perceived or actual) deceits may well support Kasich if he begins to moderate his tone.

This brings me to my big prediction: John Kasich Is Going To Ruin Everything.

Kasich is a far more palatable candidate to the Establishment and Moderate voters, many of whom LOATHE Cruz.  Don't get me wrong, I think Cruz is now the grassroots candidate.  #NeverTrump is a grassroots movement (for the most part), and I think Cruz will win that portion of the electorate handily.  But for Rubio voters who consider Cruz a dishonest or childish candidate, Kasich may seem the honest adult.  They may well flip to him instead of Cruz, weakening Cruz's bid to take down Trump, especially in Northern states.

A split may well develop, then, in the #NeverTrump movement between Establishment and Moderate voters who want an electable governor as the GOP nominee and the Social Conservative/Angry Right grassroots who like Cruz's conservative bona fides and want change in the Republican Party.  The problem?  That split would likely hand Trump the nomination on a silver platter.