A Grand Unified Theory of the 2016 Republican Presidential Race

I've refrained from writing about the 2016 Republican election here at all, mostly because I've been too busy.  (If you're wondering, though, I'm firmly in the #NeverTrump camp.)  However, I came up with something recently that I think helps to explain the frenetic nature of the current Republican race.  I'll briefly describe that here. 

The reason I think that the party feels like it's a very tense breaking point, in my opinion, is because of overlapping voter groups within the GOP.  

The Republican electorate is made up of five disparate kinds of voters right now.  I'll lay them out briefly below, from most conservative to least.

Group number one I like to call the Far Right.  This voting block includes die-hard Tea Partiers, many conservative-minded libertarians, and those for whom the Second Amendment and illegal immigration are primary issues.  Voters in this group tend to reflexively dislike or blame Obama, "the liberals," or the government in general for society's problems.  They are often working-class or middle-class economically, with a deep-seated distrust of authority.  Due to their belief in American exceptionalism, they occasionally hold isolationist viewpoints on foreign policy.  This election, they're rather angry and fed up with the lack of conservative solutions being put in action by mainstream Republican lawmakers.

Next come Social Conservatives.  They vote Republican due to a strong belief in Judeo-Christian moral values.  They view Republicans as aligned with this moral tradition and working to preserve it in society.  Their primary issues of concern are social trends in the country that they see as corrupting the culture at the root level of the family: governmental endorsement of same-sex marriage, abortion on demand, and a disregard for religious liberty.  Social Conservatives vote for Republicans who they hope will curtail or reverse these trends.  Along with the Far Right, these voters make up the grassroots of the Republican party.

After Social Conservatives come the Establishment GOP voters.  Frequently accused of being RINOs ("Republican in name only") by the Far Right, these voters cast their ballots to support GOP candidates because they believe that general Republican principles can govern the country better overall than liberal ones.  Establishment voters may include "compassionate conservatives" like George W. Bush or John McCain, Republicans who think that government programs can be used selectively to cure some social ills.  This is the hardest voting group to positively define.

Fourth in line are Moderates.  These individuals vote Republican for a variety of disparate reasons, but often because they happen to like the Republican candidate today better than the Democratic one. They hang out in the middle of the political spectrum and don't pick any cohesive side.  They may have sympathy with both liberal and conservative points of view.  The Far Right and Social Conservatives alike heap disdain on these voters, terming them "squishy" and "unprincipled" - the real RINOs.

Finally, the Blue Dog Democrats.  These guys are Democrats disillusioned with their own party for one reason or another.  Many still hold mostly liberal values, and may be registered Democrats.  However, whether it's dislike of the Democratic candidates or dissatisfaction with how Democrats are addressing a particular issue, or even attraction to a Republican candidate who they feel will "shake up" the political landscape, they vote Republican in primaries.  In a general election for President, though, their allegiance to the Democratic party may prevail.

My big theory is that each of the remaining Republican presidential candidates is primarily pulling from two of these five voting groups, as detailed below:

Trump = Blue Dog Democrats + Far Right

Cruz = Far Right + Social Conservatives

Rubio = Social Conservatives + Establishment

Kasich = Establishment + Moderates

I think viewing the electoral field in this way provides a lot of clarity into where the conflicts are in the current Republican race for president.  What do you think?  Let me know in the comments!