Why Cruz Isn't Winning Where He Should

Tonight after Arizona was called for Trump in the GOP primary, I heard several of CNN's election night pundits talk for the umpteenth time about how troubling it is that Cruz can't win southern or western states.  This begs the question: why is Trump beating Cruz where Cruz "should win?"  I thought I'd give my own perspective.

Recall that based on my Grand Unified Theory (it really needs a better name), Trump and Cruz are both primarily pulling from the Angry Right, a portion of the GOP electorate that is sizable and loud this election cycle.  Most Angry Right voters are dissatisfied with the federal government, if not mad at it, and feel that they have been betrayed by the politicians in Washington - Republican or Democrat - one too many times.  The Angry Right want pure ideological conservative policies, but the representatives they elect seem to moderate, dilly-dally, or vote for things they don't agree with when they arrive in DC.  Trump's message of frank, bull-like fury, they feel, will topple Washington politics-as-usual by sheer force of personality, clearing out what they feel is a disingenuous and threatening system.

Thing is, Cruz is running with a similar message, aimed at the Angry Right.  My thought is that Trump is beating Cruz with Angry Right voters in the South and West, where I think they're primarily concentrated.

This might be occurring because the Angry Right thinks Trump will smash the system, while Cruz has a (likely undeserved) reputation for duplicity.  His campaign this primary season has had several rather public instances where they've bent the truth.  (Iowa mailers, Carson's dropping out, Rubio and the Bible, etc.)  While these instances have been oddly non-existent since Cruz fired Rick Tyler about a month ago, the Angry Right is wary of duplicity, with a deep fear of being duped again.  Trump's label of "lying Ted" may well have stuck, and the Angry Right may be embracing Trump as the more genuine-seeming of the two candidates.

Alternatively, the Angry Right may consider Cruz to be a politician who's fought the system in Washington, but is still a part of it nonetheless.  It's likely not helping when they see the anti-Trump establishment forces rallying around Cruz as their last hope, and may well drive more of the Angry Right to Trump's side.